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Cult Vengeful

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Revision as of 22:12, 30 July 2013 by Rob13 (talk | contribs) (→‎Odds)
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Vengeful is a 5-player Open Setup devised by Rob13 in an attempt to create the smallest possible setup that includes a cult.

Roles

The following roles are used:

Rules

  • The cult can't kill at all.
  • If, on Day 1 only, one of the townies is lynched, this townie immediately gets to make a vigilante kill. (See Vengeful Townie)
  • This kill occurs before the cult recruitment in action resolution.

Odds

Assuming all lynch and vengeance decisions are made randomly, cult will win 53.333% of games and town will win 46.667%. This assumes that the town will never no lynch (as this option gives them only a 30% chance of a win).

The cult's win odds are:

  • 20% chance of cult recruiter lynch D1 * 0% chance of cult win in this case +
  • 80% chance of townie lynch D1 *
    • (50% chance of vig kill targeting a townie that is NOT recruited +
    • 25% chance of vig kill targeting the cult recruiter * 0% chance of cult win in this case +
    • 25% chance of vig kill targeting the same townie that is targeted for recruitment * 67% chance of cult surviving final three)