Stoofer's Laws

Stoofer's Laws are adages coined by and named after Mr Stoofer.

Stoofer's 1st Law

This states:

In a C9 game, if a pro-town player is lynched on day 1, both scum were probably on the lynch.

This is not really a law at all -- more a theory. Mr Stoofer had been propounding it for some time when Turbovolver suggested that it be named as one of Stoofer's Laws. It applies to C9 games, as well as old fashioned Newbie games, but not other types of game.

Exceptions to Stoofer's 1st Law include the case where the lynchee self-votes, and where the lynch goes through at deadline with fewer than 4 votes. Also where the mafia are really smart or the town is really dumb.

Stoofer's 1st Law is highly controversial. For example, Norinel has observed that the mafia is really smart or the town is really dumb almost exactly as often as you would expect there to be less than two mafia on the bandwagon if the law had no relevance and voting patterns were actually random.

Stoofer's 2nd Law

This states:

As a discussion in the Mafia Discussion Forum grows longer, the probability of someone voting for someone else in the thread approaches 1.

It has also been observed that discussions in other threads become more and more likely to contain a vote as they increase in length. For a discussion of Stoofer's 2nd Law click here.

Based on experimental data, the probablility in the Mafia Discussion Forum is approximately: 1 - (155/(155+n)), where n is the number of posts in a thread. See bigAl's calculation here. The probability seems to be on an upswing recently, possibly due to Thok's Corollary.

Thok's Corollary to Stoofer's 2nd Law

Thok has proposed a corollary to Stoofer's 2nd Law:

If necessary, Mr Stoofer will vote somebody in a thread just to make Stoofer's 2nd Law apply.

Interestingly, the existence of Thok's Corollary has encouraged Mr Stoofer to act in accordance with it.