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The following lists probabilities for the town winning in different setups. All are basic games, with [[Mafia]] and [[ | The following lists probabilities for the town winning in different setups. All are basic games, with [[Mafia]] and [[Townie]]s only, starting with [[Night]] and assuming random [[lynch]]ings and [[night kill]]s. The numbers probably do not reflect what the actual outcome would be if real games were played, as they don't account for the Mafia giving themselves away through bad logic. Only games with probabilities between 30% and 70% are included (except for 5 players, where 25% is the closest to 50%). Note that the probability for the Town drops when there are an odd number of players to start with. | ||
<pre>4 Players: 1 Mafia - 33.33% | <pre>4 Players: 1 Mafia - 33.33% | ||
Revision as of 23:02, 26 January 2007
The following lists probabilities for the town winning in different setups. All are basic games, with Mafia and Townies only, starting with Night and assuming random lynchings and night kills. The numbers probably do not reflect what the actual outcome would be if real games were played, as they don't account for the Mafia giving themselves away through bad logic. Only games with probabilities between 30% and 70% are included (except for 5 players, where 25% is the closest to 50%). Note that the probability for the Town drops when there are an odd number of players to start with.
4 Players: 1 Mafia - 33.33% 5 Players: 1 Mafia - 25.00% 6 Players: 1 Mafia - 46.67% 7 Players: 1 Mafia - 37.50% 8 Players: 1 Mafia - 54.29% 9 Players: 1 Mafia - 45.31% 10 Players: 1 Mafia - 59.37% 11 Players: 1 Mafia - 50.78% 12 Players: 1 Mafia - 63.06%, 2 Mafia - 35.21% 13 Players: 1 Mafia - 54.88% 14 Players: 2 Mafia - 39.49%, 1 Mafia - 65.90% 15 Players: 1 Mafia - 58.11%, 2 Mafia - 30.50% 16 Players: 2 Mafia - 43.01%, 1 Mafia - 68.17% 17 Players: 1 Mafia - 60.72%, 2 Mafia - 33.95% 18 Players: 2 Mafia - 45.97% 19 Players: 1 Mafia - 62.91%, 2 Mafia - 36.92% 20 Players: 2 Mafia - 48.51%, 3 Mafia - 30.66% 21 Players: 2 Mafia - 39.52%, 1 Mafia - 64.76% 22 Players: 2 Mafia - 50.71%, 3 Mafia - 33.21% 23 Players: 1 Mafia - 66.36%, 2 Mafia - 41.82% 24 Players: 2 Mafia - 52.65%, 3 Mafia - 35.49%
See also ...and they all lived happily ever after.