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Talk:Vengeful Mafia: Difference between revisions
(Created page with " == Probability for a 7-player vengeful (assuming random decisions) == (G,M,T) TOWNIE WIN: (1,2,4) = (4/7)*(1,2,3)^ + (2/7)*(1,1,4) + 1/7 (1,2,3)^ = (1/6)*(0,2,3) + (2/6)*(1,...") |
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== Probability for a 7-player vengeful (assuming random decisions) == | == Probability for a 7-player vengeful (assuming random decisions) == | ||
Actually, fail. I forgot to account for the fact that vengeful won't target self. Whoops. | |||
New work: | |||
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(G,M,T) | (G,M,T) | ||
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(1,2,4) = (4/7)*(1,2,3)^ + (2/7)*(1,1,4) + 1/7 | (1,2,4) = (4/7)*(1,2,3)^ + (2/7)*(1,1,4) + 1/7 | ||
(1,2,3)^ = (1/ | (1,2,3)^ = (1/5)*(0,2,3) + (2/5)*(1,1,3) | ||
(1,1,4) = (4/6)*(1,1,3) + (1/6)*(1,0,4) + 1/6 | (1,1,4) = (4/6)*(1,1,3) + (1/6)*(1,0,4) + 1/6 | ||
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(1,2,4) = (4/7)*(11/ | (1,2,4) = (4/7)*(11/50) + (2/7)*(1/2) + 1/7 = 22/175 + 2/7 = '''72/175''' | ||
(1,2,3)^ = (1/ | (1,2,3)^ = (1/5)*(3/10) + (2/5)*(2/5) = 11/50 | ||
(1,1,4) = (4/6)*(4/10) + (1/6)*(4/5) + 1/6 = 15/30 | (1,1,4) = (4/6)*(4/10) + (1/6)*(4/5) + 1/6 = 15/30 | ||
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(1,0,2) = 2/3 | (1,0,2) = 2/3 | ||
EDIT: Now it's 72/175 vs 103/175. That is, (41.14% - 58.86%). | |||
So townie win is 41/105, mafia win is 64/105. This turns out to be (39.05% - 60.95%), very similar to 40%-60% but slightly off. | So townie win is 41/105, mafia win is 64/105. This turns out to be (39.05% - 60.95%), very similar to 40%-60% but slightly off. | ||
--[[User:Phenomist|Phenomist]] 14:57, 10 April 2011 (EDT) | --[[User:Phenomist|Phenomist]] 14:57, 10 April 2011 (EDT) | ||
Latest revision as of 19:02, 10 April 2011
Probability for a 7-player vengeful (assuming random decisions)
Actually, fail. I forgot to account for the fact that vengeful won't target self. Whoops.
New work:
(G,M,T)
TOWNIE WIN: (1,2,4) = (4/7)*(1,2,3)^ + (2/7)*(1,1,4) + 1/7
(1,2,3)^ = (1/5)*(0,2,3) + (2/5)*(1,1,3)
(1,1,4) = (4/6)*(1,1,3) + (1/6)*(1,0,4) + 1/6
(1,1,3) = .4 (confirmed)
(0,2,3) = (0,1,3)*(2/5)
(1,0,4) = (1,0,3)*(4/5) + 1/5
(1,3) = (0,1,2)*(3/4) + 1/4
(1,0,3) = (1,0,2)*(3/4) + 1/4
(1,2) = 2/3
(1,0,2) = 2/3
(1,2,4) = (4/7)*(11/50) + (2/7)*(1/2) + 1/7 = 22/175 + 2/7 = 72/175
(1,2,3)^ = (1/5)*(3/10) + (2/5)*(2/5) = 11/50
(1,1,4) = (4/6)*(4/10) + (1/6)*(4/5) + 1/6 = 15/30
(1,1,3) = .4 (confirmed)
(0,2,3) = (3/4)*(2/5) = 3/10
(1,0,4) = (3/4)*(4/5) + 1/5 = 4/5
(0,1,3) = (2/3)*(3/4) + 1/4 = 3/4
(1,0,3) = (2/3)*(3/4) + 1/4 = 3/4
(0,1,2) = 2/3
(1,0,2) = 2/3
EDIT: Now it's 72/175 vs 103/175. That is, (41.14% - 58.86%).
So townie win is 41/105, mafia win is 64/105. This turns out to be (39.05% - 60.95%), very similar to 40%-60% but slightly off. --Phenomist 14:57, 10 April 2011 (EDT)