Stoofer's Laws

Stoofer's Laws are adages coined by and named after Mr Stoofer.

Stoofer's 1st Law

This states:

In a C9 game, if a pro-town player is lynched on day 1, both scum were probably on the lynch.

This is not really a law at all -- more a theory. Mr Stoofer had been propounding it for some time when Turbovolver suggested that it be named as one of Stoofer's Laws. It applies to C9 games, as well as old fashioned Newbie games, but not other types of game.

Exceptions to Stoofer's 1st Law include the case where the lynchee self-votes, and where the lynch goes through at deadline with fewer than 4 votes. Also where the mafia are really smart or the town is really dumb.

Stoofer's 1st Law is highly controversial. For example, Norinel has observed that the mafia is really smart or the town is really dumb almost exactly as often as you would expect there to be fewer than two mafia on the bandwagon if the law had no relevance and voting patterns were actually random.

Stoofer's 2nd Law

This states:

As a discussion in the Mafia Discussion Forum grows longer, the probability of someone voting for someone else in the thread approaches 1.

It has also been observed that discussions in other threads become more and more likely to contain a vote as they increase in length. For a discussion of Stoofer's 2nd Law click here.

bigAL's Calculation

Based on experimental data, in March 2006 bigAl calculated that the actual probability of someone voting for someone else in the Mafia Discussion Forum is approximately: 1 - (155/(155+n)), where n is the number of posts in a thread. See this post. However, due to Thok's Corollary and mith's Observation, the current probability is today significantly higher.

Stoofer's 3rd Law

At present there is no Stoofer's 3rd Law, a matter of some concern to Mr Stoofer.

Corollaries, etc, relating to Stoofer's Law

Mr Stoofer and others have proposed a number of consequential principles following on from Stoofer's Laws. Some of the most important ones are listed below.

Thok's Corollary to Stoofer's 2nd Law

Thok has proposed a corollary to Stoofer's 2nd Law:

If necessary, Mr Stoofer will vote somebody in a thread just to make Stoofer's 2nd Law apply.

Thok's Corollary has become very well-known, even to the extent that it is from time to time confused with Stoofer's 2nd Law itself. It has led to further principles as set out below.

Stoofer's Observation on Thok's Corollary to Stoofer's 2nd Law

As first posted in the MafiaWiki, this observation is:

Interestingly, the existence of Thok's Corollary has encouraged Mr Stoofer to act in accordance with it.

This observation is now a self-fulfilling prophecy.

mith's Principle regarding Stoofer's Observation on Thok's Corollary to Stoofer's 2nd Law

The evident truth of Stoofer's Observation on Thok's Corollary to Stoofer's 2nd Law led mith to formulate the following principle:

Stoofer's Observation that he is encouraged to act on Thok's Corollary has the side-effect of encouraging others to vote even earlier in Mafia Discussion threads, before Mr Stoofer can get to them, in order to have a hand in upholding Stoofer's 2nd Law, often in spite of confusion over what the Law, Corollary, and Observation actually entail, thus further increasing the probability of a vote in a thread with N posts beyond even the observed upswing due to the effect of Thok's Corollary on bigAl's Calculation vis-à-vis Stoofer's 2nd Law.