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(fix 4:9 EV - slightly lower due to Mafia nightkill strategy)
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*17p: 7:10 (41%), 6:11 (53%)
*17p: 7:10 (41%), 6:11 (53%)


As the Town win condition specifies "lynched", Mafia may find cases where nightkilling one of their own may be beneficial. For example, from a purely EV perspective: at 4:7 Mafia should always nightkill Town (they are close enough to [[Lylo]]; at 4:11 Mafia should always nightkill Mafia (down to 1 or 2 Mafia members, depending on whether one has been lynched or not, to reduce the chances of losing to two Mafia lynches); and at 4:9 the day 1 lynch determines the correct strategy (if Town is lynched day 1, Mafia should reduce the game to 4:7, but if Mafia is lynched they should kill down to 1 Mafia member).
As the Town win condition specifies "lynched", Mafia may find cases where nightkilling one of their own may be beneficial. For example, from a purely EV perspective: at 4:7 Mafia should always nightkill Town (they are close enough to [[Lylo]]); at 4:11 Mafia should always nightkill Mafia (down to 1 or 2 Mafia members, depending on whether one has been lynched or not, to reduce the chances of losing to two Mafia lynches); and at 4:9 the day 1 lynch determines the correct strategy (if Town is lynched day 1, Mafia should reduce the game to 4:7, but if Mafia is lynched they should kill down to 1 Mafia member).


It may also be beneficial to nightkill a Mafia member based on the day play. If a member is likely to be lynched the next day, it may be better to kill them off rather than give Town a free "point" toward the two lynch win condition.
It may also be beneficial to nightkill a Mafia member based on the day play. If a member is likely to be lynched the next day, it may be better to kill them off rather than give Town a free "point" toward the two lynch win condition.

Revision as of 16:46, 22 May 2018

Name:
  • Red Flag
Setup Size:
Players:
  • 13
Setup Type:
Designer:

Red Flag is an Open Setup derived from the similar White Flag. The Town wins when any two Mafia players are lynched or when all Mafia players are dead.

Setup

Mechanics

  • Daystart
  • Town wins when any two Mafia are lynched or all Mafia are dead
  • Mafia has daytalk

Role PMs

Mafia Goon

  • Welcome, [Player Name]. You are a Mafia Goon, along with [Player Name], [Player Name], and [Player Name].

Abilities:

  • Factional communication: Pre-game and at any time during the game you may talk with your partners here [Link].
  • Factional kill: Every night, one of you or your partners may perform the factional kill.

Win condition:

  • You win when all members of the town have been eliminated or nothing can prevent this from occurring.

Please confirm via PM.


Vanilla Townie

  • Welcome, [Player Name], you are a Vanilla Townie.

Abilities:

  • Your vote is your weapon, you have no special abilities.

Win condition:

  • You win when any two Mafia Goons are lynched or when all Mafia are dead.

Please confirm via PM.

Discussion

Red Flag was originally designed by mith, who calculated the EV for various Scum:Town ratios. 1-2 Mafia Setups are equivalent to Vanilla Mafia; 3 Mafia Setups are (mostly) equivalent to White Flag. The EV for other counts is:

  • 11p: 4:7 (35%)
  • 13p: 5:8 (37%), 4:9 (45%)
  • 15p: 6:9 (39%), 5:10 (50%)
  • 17p: 7:10 (41%), 6:11 (53%)

As the Town win condition specifies "lynched", Mafia may find cases where nightkilling one of their own may be beneficial. For example, from a purely EV perspective: at 4:7 Mafia should always nightkill Town (they are close enough to Lylo); at 4:11 Mafia should always nightkill Mafia (down to 1 or 2 Mafia members, depending on whether one has been lynched or not, to reduce the chances of losing to two Mafia lynches); and at 4:9 the day 1 lynch determines the correct strategy (if Town is lynched day 1, Mafia should reduce the game to 4:7, but if Mafia is lynched they should kill down to 1 Mafia member).

It may also be beneficial to nightkill a Mafia member based on the day play. If a member is likely to be lynched the next day, it may be better to kill them off rather than give Town a free "point" toward the two lynch win condition.

Completed Games

History
Open 722 - (Town Win)
Open 741 - (Mafia Win)