Interactive Tells

Type: Play Author: Mastin2

History

Original Publication: August 7, 2013 by Mastin2

Original Thread.

Introduction

So recently, I received a request to work on interactive tells. I told the person who asked for these "partnership tells" that doing so would be difficult, due to the nature of tells:

As soon as any credible tell is published, they stop being a tell. My take of why is that scum become aware of them and stop using them, meaning that most of the time it's town caught by them, and when it's reversed to the point where it's considered a towntell, scum begin using it again for both convenience and towncred, ultimately nullifying the tell as it becomes equally used by both.

However, there are some things which never become obsolete. The problem is, the reason they're not obsolete is that they're subtle, subjective, and highly circumstantial. So I can't exactly give a full guide on them.

But this article was created to try and give a few pointers.

Townhunting is just as important as scumhunting.

Got a ton of nulls? You're doing it wrong. Got twice the number of maximum possible scum in your scumlist? You're doing it wrong. The town makes up the majority of the players, so you should be paying attention to the interactions between players and looking for more than just scum, but also for town. Why?

Because Process of Elimination is a DEADLY tool to have in your arsenal. There are many games which aren't won by lynching scum, but rather, by not lynching town. Being able to tell who is town, seeing town interactions, is a key to that method. Now, obviously, just because you're aiming to not lynch town doesn't mean you don't want to lynch scum. You're still aiming to hit the most-likely scum player, but that can sometimes be a secondary objective compared to the primary of not lynching town.

Mindset is linked heavily into interactions.

I used to consider the two separate entities, but nowadays, they're practically one and the same. Get into the players' heads and think, "Why are they interacting with that player?" Is it something they're doing because they're town? Because they're scum? Or is it something they're doing because they're who they are? (That is, something they would do regardless of alignment, and thus, null.)

Understanding how a player is thinking is a vital objective for knowing what to look for. If you think you can see where they're coming from, it's easier to decode their posts. Understand what their intentions are, and you'll be capable of knowing what spawns their interactions.

This is why meta is so prominent on the site.

It's much, MUCH easier to understand the mind of a player if you've seen their previous games. Those give you an idea of how they work in general (that is, things that are unique to them as a person and not alignment-specific), as town, and as scum.

META: First-hand experience trumps second-hand reading.

It's one thing to read a player's past games. It's an entirely different thing to have been in that game as things were unfolding. In general, I'll trust a meta much more if the player giving the meta was personally present during the time events were unfolding, because it gives them a much more accurate view of the player.

META: Larger sample sizes are better!

If you only have a single example of town/scum play, that's not meta. Not really. That's just a random town game and random scum game, which don't give a greater indication of that player as a whole. Yes, sometimes, that's all they've got, but if there's more, you need to use it. Because meta is meant to show a consistent trend across town/scum games, to show that consistent mindset as town and as scum and in general. Which requires multiple examples of both.

If that larger sample size is absent, you can still use the meta, yes. But use it with the understanding that is is inherently MUCH weaker than with the larger sample size, and should be taken with a grain of salt.

Metas can change!

ESPECIALLY if the player is (1) new, (2) a Village Idiot who wants to stop being a VI, or most critically, (3) is aware of their own meta. This is another reason the larger sample size is handy: it helps show what doesn't change in a player's meta.

Ultimately, meta is a tool.

Not the end-all of scumhunting. It has value, ESPECIALLY at reading the mindset of a player, but it is only a guideline. It is not absolute. It's there to help you read a player, not to be the entire basis for a read on a player.

The "how" is just as important as the "why"!

As is the "when", for that matter. Circumstances are everything, and the WAY a person interacts with someone is arguably even more important than the WHY behind them doing so.

Scum love bussing, and hate being caught on town lynches.

Yes, there are always going to be exceptions. But in general, when I look at the lynch of a town player, I'm going to mainly be focusing on the players OFF the wagon to see why they were off.

("This is extremely counter-intuitive. Surely, scum would be absent from scum lynches and present on town lynches!" Yeahno. Not in the current site meta. Scum are overly-fond of bussing and have a fear of being caught lynching town, obsessed with the idea of maximizing towncred. Should they be, no. They should be keeping long-term objectives in mind. But I'm speaking from experience; most don't. They think their scumbuddies are scummier than they really are, and thus, become some of the stronger advocates for lynching their scumbuddies. The scum always see themselves as having a weakest link, regardless of whether that's true or not.)

There's typically a lot of the times where I'll catch hints that they knew the player was town and didn't want to be on. However, some words of advice:

• If the player was encouraging the townlynch wagon (even subtly) but stayed off of it? Far more likely to be scum.
• If the player was fairly consistently saying that player was town throughout the day? Nullish-town, not scum. Many players (myself included) find would-be-mislynches easy to read as town, and become frustrated that their words are being ignored and that a townread is being lynched. Look for that frustration. Look for that resistance, that fight. That can often be the distinguishing factor between a player knowing they're town but not caring they're being lynched (scum) and "knowing" they're town and fighting to prove it (town).
• If the player was going back and forth on the townlynch wagon? Analyze why. Look for those same signs of frustration! And add in confusion. Scum when they "can't get a read" are generally more like "am indecisive", but don't have that emotion. Whereas town not being able to get a read? That SUCKS. They hate it. They want a read, but cannot for the life of them settle down on it. Look for that.
• Scum are manipulative. Look for signs of their actions being different from their words. Look to see if their ultimate goal is different from what it seems to be. I summed this up in a previous article: elite scum players will SEEM like they're pushing a town agenda, while secretly furthering a scum one. This can be evident in wagon formations.
• Don't rely on generalities. Sometimes, all the scum WILL be on a wagon. Sometimes, all the scum will be OFF a wagon. Don't make arbitrary calls as to how many scum are on or off. Instead analyze the reasons why a person is on a wagon, or (very vitally, especially in the case of a townlynch wagon) why they're not on the wagon.

The guidelines (not rules!) for lynches on scum are different.

• Scum want the towncred for being on the lynch. If a player backs out at the last minute out of paranoia, GENERALLY, they're not scum making a last-ditch effort to save their scumbuddy. No, they're generally town who suddenly got a very bad feeling about the lynch. There are exceptions, of course, but this is (UNDER CURRENT SITE META! It's likely to change in the future) a mild towntell right now.
• Scum seriously want the towncred for being on the lynch. Thus, are more likely to be on the earlier half of the wagon. Back in the olden days, they were later on the wagon, but that doesn't work anymore. Scum don't look, see their scumbuddy is nearing a lynch, and decide, "Yeah, you're doomed. Might as well get on you." They look, see their scumbuddy (who currently has few if any votes) is likely going down, and get on (or even start!) the wagon immediately, to maximize their towncred.
• The above tip pretty much acts as a guideline for running through the entire procedure, of analyzing why a player is on or off, and looking for emotions, looking for manipulation, and looking for signs that this player is scum bussing.

Note that all of these tips are more useful in single-faction games, but aren't invalid in multiball. Just not as likely to work as well. And, again. I cannot emphasize this enough. These tips only work in the current site meta. If scum played the way I actually advised them to, these tips wouldn't work at all. And via their publication, these tips are likely to be obsolete within a year or two. (Maybe sooner.) They'll work fairly well RIGHT NOW, but the scum WILL adapt.

Scum really love bussing.

Cross-bussing, double-bussing, triple-cross-bussing, double-decker-bussing, I'velosttrackofhowmanyterminologieshavecomeupaboutit-bussing, you get the idea. Never assume the fight was so intense that it could never be scum bussing.

Analyze!

Though the above tip should be kept in mind, don't violate occam's razor and assume that they're scum. Keep in mind the mindset. Sometimes, scumbuddies really don't get along, and flat-out hate each other. (Or don't work well as a team, or whatever.) They are the type most prone to these elaborate busses, so think about the players' playstyles and if they're heavily in clash with one another.

In general, the simpler interaction will be correct, so in general, you can conclude that what might be a tripple-cross-double-decker-whatevertheheckyoucallit-bus, probably isn't. But always keep in mind the circumstances, because sometimes, it CAN be, especially if the scum don't get along very well.

"What about other tells?"

Things like buddying? Emotions? Rage? Arrogance? Surely, there are tells for those, right?

Unfortunately not. None that can be generalized, at least, none that I can think of. They are highly, HIGHLY circumstantial, more than any other type of interaction, and are largely player-dependent.

I do have one:

Scum don't generally buddy to scum.

So if you see a player buddy up to someone else that flips scum, chances are generally much higher that player is town. (Multiball excluded, for obvious reasons.) But that's about it. Town buddy town just as much as scum buddy town. Town have emotional outbursts just as much as scum do; it's generally something they do as a person, not as a player.

Is it impossible to analyze? Heck no. Keep in mind the tips for mindset and meta (along with the "how" and "why"), and you can analyze these interactions to potentially get a read on the player. But there are no predefined tells for it, none that will work often enough to actually be called a tell.

Don't discard the lynched town players.

Ask yourself why they were lynched. And sometimes, they had good reads, and good reasons! So don't blindly assume, "Oh, they were lynched, they must be awful; I can ignore them." On the contrary, analyze their posts closely now that you know their alignment to be town, and know their mindset was town-driven, and look at their interactions with others.

Yeah! Sometimes, the results will be, "They were an idiot, that deserved to be lynched. There's nothing of use in here."

...But often-times, the results WILL surprise you, in that they actually had some valid points, points which in confirmation bias were ignored by others. And if so, then you have to carefully wonder how they got lynched, despite the fact that they had valid points.

The result is, more often than not, scum interference. That subtle manipulation.

Nightkill analysis is just as important as lynch analysis.

Yes, tread carefully. NKA is a wifom goldmine. It's easy to get lost, because in general, there's no single reason specific players die; it's generally a combination of multiple factors that contributed to their demise. So it's impossible to be certain about them.

...But it's not something to be flat-out ignored. If you can figure out the reasons why that player died (common ones being: obvtown, reads dangerously close, is a rational player capable of changing their reads, and might be a PR), then you can better figure out who killed them. Who had the most to gain from their death, and why? Who is more likely to kill them? What does the kill accomplish? Was it random or planned? Things like that.

Again,

Don't put too much stock in it.

You don't want to ignore NKA, but you don't want to put much faith in it. Let it contribute to a read, not be the entire basis of a read.

These tips are mostly geared towards after you have flips.

Interactive tells before a player has actually flipped is a dangerous territory to be in. A lot of players (myself included) DO do it, but it's something I take great caution in.

Always update your reads to fit new evidence.

My golden rule applies, here, so that if you DO use these interactive tells pre-flip, you don't become biased in their usage.

Always try to keep your theories simple.

Not necessarily "the simplest explanation" as in occam's razor, but simple. When it comes down to it, scum aren't master plotters. They're humans, who have basic instincts. Figure out those basic (that is, simple) instincts, those basic patterns, and you'll be much better off.

(But, uh, do apply occam's razor. :P The simplest explanation may not always be true, but it's going to be true more often than not.)

Work with other players.

Often-times, they'll have a perspective on a player that you lack. Their input can be quite valuable.

Take their words with a grain of salt.

They can be scum (who have an agenda), and their experience may not be accurate, especially if their sample size is too small. So don't blindly accept their input, just as you shouldn't blindly ignore it. Filter it, and take it into consideration.

Never forget the bigger picture, but never focus on it.

There's more than one scum in the game, so be aware of that, but also don't expect to realistically catch the entirety of the scumteam(s) early-on. You're not a scumhunting god, so you WILL make mistakes. That doesn't give you an excuse to only have one scumread, though. You should have at least as many as you expect there to be in a game. (Two for a micro, three for a mini, and numbers after that are all approximations: ~four for 16-20 players, ~five for 19-24 players, and ~six for 22+ players. Yes, there's overlap. Again, these are approximations.)

If you have too few scumreads, you're being equally as negligent as if you have too many.

Yeah, it's okay to have too many/too few for certain stages, but the key?

If your numbers are off, work HARD to fix them.

If too many, narrow down. If too few, work to include more. Never, EVER leave yourself with that number of too few/many, because it'll lessen the value of your reads SIGNIFICANTLY. (Also, opening the door for others to call you scum. Too few, "Because they can't think of other players to mislynch" or similar. Too many, "Because they're scum keeping their options open!" Admit it, you've used that accusation as a player yourself, so you're not immune to being accused of it.)

Another part of having the bigger picture in mind is obviously interactions. Let's say you're in a game with four scum, and you have four names which individually look like they make a perfect scumteam...but their interactions make no sense.

Chances are ASTRONOMICALLY high that you're wrong, because interactions typically trump individual scumminess. (Hence, why not forgetting the bigger picture is important.)

But also keep in mind that you're not omnipotent. You can't know how the scum are thinking for certain. You can't read their quicktopic. You can't know how they're treating each other for certain. You can guess, and guess reasonably well, but there's always that element of doubt. (Or, well, SHOULD always be that element of doubt, anyway... :P)

Meaning, you could be wrong. They could actually interact that way, even if to you it makes no sense, because you lack info that they have.

"I'm confused! You're contradicting yourself! What do I do?"

Circumstances are everything. Analyze, and analyze carefully based off of them. Ask if it's possible that you're wrong about the interactions making no sense. Ask also if you're right about the interactions making no sense and wrong about the scumteam involving the four. Explore both equally, and form a conclusion based off of your findings.

Often-times, it's going to be a bit of both!

Depending on how good a scumhunter you are, you could have one, two, or even three scum in the original four. (Yes, it's possible to have all four, but not probable.) And with those name(s) you keep in the scum pile, ask who should replace the name(s) you're throwing out.

And when you've done that, run through the process again. Do the interactions make sense? If not, then how likely is it that these four are your scumteam and you're wrong about the interactions, how likely is it that you're wrong on the names but right about the interactions, and so on, and so forth. It's a cyclic process, one which should never end.

One thing all of these have in common?

The middle ground!

Don't be too extreme in any part of your play. Ideal town play is to keep that middle-ground perfectly, and to hold things mostly in balance. Yeah, there's going to be exceptions, and yeah, it's pretty much impossible to fully achieve, but you should be striving for it, that middle-ground, because it's that middle-ground which spawns great scumhunters who are incredibly rational and capable players.

"I disagree with these points in the guide!"

The reason why this guide is going to get controversy is for the exact reasons that I mentioned when starting: because it's highly circumstantial, and is both incredibly subjective and incredibly subtle.

Because of that, the tips I've presented are largely my own opinion and my own process. Your own may be different, and that's not wrong! There's no truly entirely-right or entirely-wrong way to approach the game, this being no exception. So feel free to share your own take on things, and take from this guide whatever you can.