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Scumputer: Difference between revisions
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==Description== | |||
The '''Scumputer''' is the trademark scumhunting technique of [[DrippingGoofball]]. After several significant wagons (either lynching wagons or wagons that came pretty close to lynching) have formed, DrippingGoofball will analyze them and assign ratings to players according to how often they have wagoned. The base assumption is that any significant wagon has some, but not all, of the scum on it. | The '''Scumputer''' is the trademark scumhunting technique of [[DrippingGoofball]]. After several significant wagons (either lynching wagons or wagons that came pretty close to lynching) have formed, DrippingGoofball will analyze them and assign ratings to players according to how often they have wagoned. The base assumption is that any significant wagon has some, but not all, of the scum on it. | ||
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This analysis method can be beaten by violating its basic assumption. It will perform suboptimally if every member of a scumteam is on a wagon, and perform even worse if every member of a scumteam is ''off'' the wagon. | This analysis method can be beaten by violating its basic assumption. It will perform suboptimally if every member of a scumteam is on a wagon, and perform even worse if every member of a scumteam is ''off'' the wagon. | ||
The scumputer works best on Days 3-4-5 of large games. | |||
[[File:scumputer.jpg|thumb|center|450x300px|alt=The scumputer is 4REALZ.|The scumputer processes wagons in a ''[[Mafia]] game''.]] | |||
[[Category:Theory]] | [[Category:Theory]] | ||
[[Category:Glossary]] | [[Category:Glossary]] | ||
[[Category:Trademarks]] | [[Category:Trademarks]] | ||
==Instructions== | |||
First, extract all wagons that contain about 20% of the total players. Those are termed '''MAXWAGONS'''. | |||
Example: | |||
Player A (6): Player B, Player C, Player D, Player E, Player F, Player G | |||
Player B (7): Player A, Player H, Player B, Player C, Player D, Player D, Player F | |||
etc. | |||
Prepare a spreadsheet with the following calculations for each '''MAXWAGON''': | |||
* '''VAR A''' number players on wagon | |||
* '''VAR B''' probability of random player being scum ''(estimated number of living scum on day of wagon / number of living players on day of wagon)'' | |||
* '''VAR C''' number of scum on wagon if randomly distributed (VAR A x VAR B) | |||
* '''VAR D''' number of townies on wagon | |||
* '''VAR E''' number of flipped scum on wagon | |||
* '''VAR F''' adjusted of scum on wagon if randomly distributed (VAR C - VAR E) | |||
* '''VAR G''' number of unknown alignment players (VAR A - VAR D - VAR E) | |||
* '''VAR H''' probability of unknown alignment player being scum (VAR F / VAR G) | |||
Next, for each unflipped player, calculate '''(VAR H * 100) - (VAR B * 100)''' for each '''MAXWAGON''' that they have voted on and add up all values. | |||
Rank the players according to the results. The higher the number, the higher the probability of a player flipping scum. | |||
Revision as of 21:20, 10 August 2014
Description
The Scumputer is the trademark scumhunting technique of DrippingGoofball. After several significant wagons (either lynching wagons or wagons that came pretty close to lynching) have formed, DrippingGoofball will analyze them and assign ratings to players according to how often they have wagoned. The base assumption is that any significant wagon has some, but not all, of the scum on it.
A sample Scumputer reading can be found here, although as a caveat, DrippingGoofball was a Serial Killer in this game. Notice that each wagon was worth 100 points times the number of yet-unfound scum expected to be on the wagon, and each living player on the wagon is assigned an equal amount of scumpoints for their participation.
This analysis method can be beaten by violating its basic assumption. It will perform suboptimally if every member of a scumteam is on a wagon, and perform even worse if every member of a scumteam is off the wagon.
The scumputer works best on Days 3-4-5 of large games.
Instructions
First, extract all wagons that contain about 20% of the total players. Those are termed MAXWAGONS.
Example:
Player A (6): Player B, Player C, Player D, Player E, Player F, Player G
Player B (7): Player A, Player H, Player B, Player C, Player D, Player D, Player F etc.
Prepare a spreadsheet with the following calculations for each MAXWAGON:
- VAR A number players on wagon
- VAR B probability of random player being scum (estimated number of living scum on day of wagon / number of living players on day of wagon)
- VAR C number of scum on wagon if randomly distributed (VAR A x VAR B)
- VAR D number of townies on wagon
- VAR E number of flipped scum on wagon
- VAR F adjusted of scum on wagon if randomly distributed (VAR C - VAR E)
- VAR G number of unknown alignment players (VAR A - VAR D - VAR E)
- VAR H probability of unknown alignment player being scum (VAR F / VAR G)
Next, for each unflipped player, calculate (VAR H * 100) - (VAR B * 100) for each MAXWAGON that they have voted on and add up all values.
Rank the players according to the results. The higher the number, the higher the probability of a player flipping scum.